Essay --

T.Y.W. 1618-1648 The Thirty Years War was a series of conflicts, not-knowingly involving most European countries from 1618 to 1648. The war, which was fought mainly in Germany, was started when Bohemian Protestants furiously attacked the Holy Roman Emperor in terms to impose a restriction on their religious and civil liberties. By understanding the Thirty Years War, you will notice the notable religious, political and social changes. The changes paved the religious and political maps of Europe. Not only did this war affect the religious and political demographic, it caused populations to perish and lose large amounts of their goods. What was known as a religious battle, turned out to be a political feud in competition of which state has the greater power affecting men, women, soldiers and civilians. â€Å"[The bohemians] had no idea that their violent deed would set off a chain reaction of armed conflict that would last thirty years and later be called Europe’s â€Å"first world war† of the modern era.† When the war ended, the lands were defiled and over 5 million people were killed. During the Thirty Years War, men and women had to experience trials and tribulations. Solders and officials, putting fear into the eyes of the countrymen, were testing all their patience, tolerance, and rights. The soldiers thought they could do anything they wanted because they abuse their powers. Citizens were often tortured by water boarding, daggers and hung if they did not satisfy the needs and wants of the officials. Martin Botzinger briefly describes his experience saying, â€Å"they beat me to the ground with daggers†¦ both my feet were bound together, and the other took the rope round my left arm, and they shoved me in water.† Scenes like this caused so ... ... then five more, one after another†¦ they allowed themselves to eat those bodies†¦ They said, ‘it was the great unbearable famine that did it.’† The struggle to find food was real. It was a heavy burden for people to bear. The need to stay a live became a daily struggle many civilian and soldiers. The Thirty Years War, known as a religious war started off as a small debacle between the bohemians and the Roman Catholics. Not knowing this was a beginning to something big. The war that lasted thirty years, allowed for torment and diminishing events to happen. Events that effected men, women and soldiers. While some suffered more than others, there was not much left to do but to deal with what you had. The war defiled the lands of Europe leaving individuals helpless without much to eat or look forward to. All in all, the Thirty years War paved the new European landscape

Oil and Dutch Disease

ECONOMICS FOR BUSINESS Project Report on – Oil and the recent ?Dutch Disease? – The Case of the United Arab Emirates Submitted by – Amitava Manna 1|Page Table of Contents Introduction †¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦.. 2 Purpose †¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦ UAE Background †¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã ¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦. 4 Theoretical Framework †¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦ 4 Empirical Findings and Analysis †¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦. 6 Data †¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚ ¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦.. Descriptive Statistics †¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦ 6 The Regression Model †¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦ 8 Conclusions: †¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚ ¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦.. 10 2|Page Introduction Four decades ago, the United Arab Emirates (U. A. E) landscape and infrastructure consisted of not much more than deserts where sheikhdoms survived on fishing, pearling, herding and agriculture. Today, Abu Dhabi and Dubai are two of the most developed emirates in the country dominated by roads, luxury homes, and skylines (consisting of modern glass and steel skyscrapers). The new modern infrastructure has replaced the undeveloped cities that once existed before. To say the least U. A. E has transformed from a desert into a developed country1 with a high gross domestic product (GDP) reaching $192. 03 million2 in 2010. According to the Global Competitiveness Report 2008-2009, U. A. E was ranked number 31 globally for its growth competitiveness. The large boost in U. A. E? s development and economy is founded on the export of the country? s oil and petroleum-based products since 1958, when oil was first discovered in Abu Dhabi. Almost 10 percent (%) of the world? s current oil reserves are controlled by the U. A. E, enabling it to comm and more than 16% of OPEC? s total reserves. The aim of the U. A. E? economy is to minimize its dependency on oil; therefore much focus has been targeted on diversifying the economy during the past two decades. In turn, making it more dependent on the service sector, especially high-class tourism as well as expanding the international finance sector. In both developed and developing countries, a natural resource boom, (as experienced in U. A. E) has triggered the so called „Dutch Disease?. It is a theory that originates from the Netherlands in the 1970s, basically explaining a decline in the traditional manufacturing sector when the country experiences a boom in their natural resource. The Dutch Disease indicates that the natural resource abundant factor triggers an appreciation of the domes- tic currency. In turn, other non-resource exporters are affected at the same time and the manufacturing sector experiences a constrained activity to compete in the world market. Furthermore, the agricultural sector undergoes a decline as labor moves to either the booming sector or the non-tradable sector. The case of the Dutch Disease would be a problem to the U. A. E since it causes the shift of labor and production for the tradable sector to the non-tradable sector causing a decline in the country? exports of manufacturing and agricultural goods. The decline in exports of U. A. E? s traditional tradable goods de-creases production of the goods affecting the country? s economy in a negative way. Purpose The purpose of this paper is to study U. A. E? s development in economic growth since 1975 and establish if there are any signs of the Dutch Disease by testing the ratio of tr adable goods to non- tradable goods and the effects by other macroeconomic variables. 3|Page UAE Background U. A. E consists of the seven emirates Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah, Ra? al-Khaimah, Ajman, Umm al-Qaiwain and Fujairah, which are located on the southern Arabian Gulf. On the 2nd of December 1971, the country became independent after being under British rule for a period of 70 years. The independence and discovery of oil triggered the economic development in U. A. E which led to a huge expansion in the population. The population boom in U. A. E is a result of the increased demand for labor throughout the past four decades and consists for the most part (83%) of labor from foreign countries referred to as expatriates. United Nation? (UN) database illustrates the division of the labor from two perspectives; first from the year 2000 compared to the changes that prevailed in 2010. Female participation and male participation in 2000 consisted of 34. 4% in the former group and 92% in the latter group. As stated in the introduction, one of the impacts when an economy is experiencing signs of the Dutch Disease is the high inflation rate followed by a change in the real exchange rate. Fluctuations in the real exchange rate can cause resources and production to reallocate between the economy? sectors of tradable and non- tradable goods and services and is there-fore regarded as an important price in the economy. The U. A. E is one of the countries in the Middle East which follows a pegged (or fixed) ex- change rate regime, in which foreign central banks stand ready to buy and sell their currencies at a fixed price in terms of dollars. The currency of the U. A. E, the AED was first officially pegged against the USD in 1974. By the end of 1977 fluctuations occurred widely. For over two decades the USD had been used as an anchor currency in practice when it became the official anchor currency in 2002. The decision to make the USD an anchor currency was made by the member nations of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in order to establish a common currency in 2010. The U. A. E and the effects from the oil industry have not been studied to any great extent. However some studies on the Dutch Disease concerning other countries have been conducted, but these studies are mainly theoretical and lack econometric testing. The studies with statistical analysis contain time series, more observations and flexible exchange rates (which could be included in the regression model). Theoretical Framework In order to comprehend the Dutch Disease theory, theoretical model of tradable (T) and non- tradable goods4 (NT), also known as the TNT Model can be used. According to Sachs and Larrain (1993) the most important assumptions is that N can neither be exported nor imported and its domestic consumption and production must be equivalent. The opposite applies for T, consumption and production domestically can differ because of the possibility of imports and exports T. In this specific model, two goods are produced and 4|Page consumed: T and N by one factor of productivity which is labor. The supply side obtains two linear functions: QT = aTLT (T) and QN = aNLN (N), Where, production is dependent on labor. LT and LN accounts for the amount of labor used, whilst aT and aN are the marginal productivities of labor for the two sectors. In other words a T or aN units more of output is achieved if one extra unit of labor is applied in either sector. Due to the linear functions, aT and aN also account for average productivities. The demand side of the TNT model circles around consumption decisions which do not include investment spending. Total absorption, i. e. pending on T and N is expressed in the equation as followed: A = PTCT + PNCN Total absorption is defined by A and levels of consumption for T and N by CT and CN. PT and PN correspond to the price of the goods. Furthermore, Sachs and Larrain (1993) assume if the ratio CT/CN is fixed, then households consumes CT and CN in fixed proportions, (regardless of relative prices). If overall spending increases, it is followed by an increase in consumption in T and N by the same proportion and vice versa. Figure below illustrates the production possibility frontier (PPF), the consumption line and the market equilibrium for T and N in a country. The PPF shows each quantity of QT that is produced in order to produce the maximum quantity of QN. If QN = aNL then QT = 0, represented by point B in the figure. Then the factor of productivity labor is located in the N sector. If QN = 0 and QT = aTL, then labor is located in T (point D in the figure). The slope of the PPF is equal to PT/PN, i. e. the relative price of T in terms of N, which is also referred to as the real exchange rate, e, in the TNT model. Therefore, aN/aT = PT/PN = e. Figure: The PPF, Consumption Path and Equilibrium QNCN B G H ` F C E D A 5|Page QTCT Empirical Findings and Analysis Data Summary of the Macroeconomic Variables used in the Regression Ratio of tradable goods to non- tradable goods (R) Sum of tradable goods (manufacturing value added, agriculture value added) divided by the sum of non-tradable goods (services value added). Inflation as GDP deflator in annual percent. Variables that are used to classify data into mutually special categories. Here the dummy variable represent the period 1975-1980, since the change in oil price was dramatic during these years. Based on current prices and is ex-pressed in USD per barrel UN (2010) Inflation (I) Dummy variable (D1) Nation Masters Economy Statistics, U. A. E (historical data) (2010) Gujarati (2010) Price of oil (P) Annual Statistical bulletin OPEC (2010) Other variables were also tested, but due to insignificant values and to avoid problems of correlation, some of the variables were excluded from the regression models. One of the other variables tested was money supply (M1), but since this variable was highly correlated with GDP, we decided to exclude it. GDP was also excluded due to high correlation with the price of oil. Descriptive Statistics The following figure shows the change in value added of tradable goods and non-tradable goods in U. A. E throughout the period 1975-2005 expressed in billion of AED per year. Value Added in Tradable and Non-tradable in U. A. E, 1975-2009 6|Page Value (BAED) 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 NT T As can be seen the production of non-tradable goods has been larger than tradable goods (non-oil goods) during the entire period. The tradable sector has not in-creased as much as the non- tradable sector, i. e. non-oil production has decreased in comparison to non-tradable. In fact the non-tradable sector has increased almost twice as much as the tradable sector, which is a symptom of the Dutch Disease. One of the reasons why the non-tradable sector may have increased so much could be due to the country? s rise in export of oil throughout 1975-2009. US $ per Barrel 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Price of Oil Inflation Rate Figure illustrates the relationship between the price of oil and the inflation rate during the period 1975-2005. We will concentrate on analyzing the inflation rate? s peak and lows and the impact from the fluctuating oil price. We can first see that there was a sharp decline in inflation from 19758 until 1978. During 1974 the inflation rate was 138. 26% according to Nation Master Economy Statistics (2010). The sharp decline could be due to that the U. A. E officially pegged 7|Page the AED to the USD in 1974. The fluctuation in the inflation rate cannot only be explained by a boom in production but also depends on other factors as well, such as the depreciation of the USD. One of the reasons why the inflation in U. A. E change so dramatically during the years 1998-2001 could be due to the burst of the â€Å"I. T-bubble† (known as the â€Å"Dot-com bubble†) in the late 1990s which affected USD negatively. The Regression Model In order to test if the chosen macroeconomic variables show indications of symptoms of the Dutch Disease, the model with the ratio of tradable goods to non-tradable goods was adopted but adjusted in order to fit this thesis. The adjusted equation is based on time series data. The presented macroeconomic variables; inflation (I) is based on the theoretical framework presented, price of oil (P) is adopted which included price of oil in the regression analysis. The dummy variable (D1) for the period 1975-1980 is which included a dummy variable for a one year period. The ratio of tradable goods to non-tradable goods serves as the dependent variable in both models, however the independent variables differ slightly; the first regression model includes inflation and price of oil as the independent variables. The second regression model also includes inflation and price of oil but a dummy variable for the period 1975-1980 was added. Model 1: R = ? 0 + ? 1P + ? 2I + ? Model 2: R = ? 0 + ? 1P + ? 2I + ? 3D1 + ? 4. 4. Econometric Problems In the beginning of the regression testing we discovered that some of the variables were correlated with one another. Money supply (M1) and GDP were the most correlated variables in the regression models, so in order to avoid multi co linearity problems we decided to exclude money supply and GDP from the regression model. The reason why the two variables were excluded was due to the high correlation between GDP an d money supply and the high correlation between GDP and price of oil. Coefficient ?1 (Price of Oil) ?2 (Inflation) ?3 (Dummy Variable) . 5 Regression Results: Sign negative or no effect negative negative or no effect 8|Page In order to make it more comprehensive for the reader, the authors summarized the coefficients and significance levels (1%, 5% or 10%) from the two different regression model results with 36 observations for the period 1975 to 2010. The R-square values show that 39. 3% (model 1) and 75. 3% (model 2) of the change in the ratio of tradable goods to non-tradable goods can be explained by the model used. The goodness of fit in model 1 on the other hand, has a poorer fit, where 39. % of the influences on the dependent variable can be explained by the model. The better fit of model 2 can be due to the additional variable tested in the second regression model, i. e. D1. In model 1 and 2 the price of oil is significant and does not support the expectation that it would h ave a negative or no effect on the ratio. Price of oil is significant at a 1% significance level in model 1 and affects the dependent variable positively. A 1% increase in the ratio of tradable goods to non-tradable goods would increase the price of oil by 0. 05840%, all else equal. In the second regression model, the price of oil is significant at a 1% level, meaning that a 1% change in the regress and would increase the price of oil by 0. 002988%, all else equal. The results from the regression models indicate that the price of oil has a positive effect on the dependent variable. This result corresponds to the authors? expectations that during a boom in natural resources, inflation has a negative effect on the ratio. The negative relationship between the inflation rate and the ratio can also be xplained by the spending effect since in a fixed exchange rate regime the inflation rate is affected by the in-crease in the money supply. The second hypothesis for model one is therefore n ot rejected and the authors can conclude that the macroeconomic variable inflation is a symptom of the disease in the country. However in the second model the inflation variable is not significant and the authors can thereby not take the variable into consideration when analyzing if the U. A. E experienced the Dutch Disease during the years 1975- 1980. Furthermore, the insignificant value of the inflation rate in model two might be due to the short time period tested, 1975-1980. The major oil price shock during this period had a negative impact on the economy of U. A. E, which negatively affected the inflation rate, leading to the insignificant-cant value in the second regression model. Time Series Regression Model 1 & 2: Model 1: R = ? 0 + ? 1P+ ? 2I + ? Coefficient Variable (t-stat) Constant 0. 166071*** (5. 141492) Price of Oil (P) 0. 005840*** (4. 122855) Inflation (I) -0. 352179* (-1. 38647) R2 = 0. 393393 DW = 0. 238252 *** Significant at 1% level ** Significant at 5% level * Significant at 10% level Model 2: R = ? 0 + ? 1P+ ? 2I + ?3D1 + ? Coefficient (t-stat) Constant Price of Oil (P) Inflation (I) Dummy Variable (D1) R2 = 0. 753809 DW = 0. 416614 0. 242127*** (10. 00689) 0. 002988*** (2. 915261) -0. 016530 (-0. 127760) – 0. 144894*** (-6. 287065) 9|Page Conclusions: This project is a study whether the oil boom in U. A. E during the 1970s led to symptoms of the Dutch Disease and if the country is a victim of the disease. Three hypotheses were tested and descriptive data was analyzed in order to reach a conclusion. The first hypothesis tested the authors? statement that the price of oil has a negative (or no) effect on the ratio of tradable goods to non-tradable goods. The results showed that the price of oil did have a positive effect on the ratio, meaning that even though there are changes in the price of the natural resource it does not affect the production in the non-oil sectors to decline. Hypothesis 1 is therefore rejected by us. In the mid-1980s the disease took an opposite direction when oil prices collapsed. Domestic demand dropped sharply in the oil-rich countries causing the construction industry to experience unemployment and employment shifted back to the tradable goods sectors. Therefore it can be concluded that the price of oil cannot be considered as a symptom of the Dutch Disease in the U. A. E. The second hypothesis was based on the problems of the high inflation rate U. A. E has experienced on and off during the years. Inflation was stated to have a negative effect on the ratio of tradable goods to non-tradable goods due to the fixed exchange rate. The regression results showed that inflation held a negative impact on the ratio therefore the hypo-thesis is not rejected by us. The last hypothesis was based on the high oil prices that existed during the period 1975-1980. Therefore a dummy variable was included in the hypothesis with the statement that it would have a negative (or no) effect on the ratio of tradable goods to non-tradable goods. Results showed that the dummy variable was negatively correlated with the ratio, thus the third hypothesis is not rejected. The negative relationship is in line with our expectations. One explanation for the negative impact on the ratio could be due to the oil price shock that occurred in 1979. The increase in the oil price during these years therefore affected the oil production negatively. Furthermore, the price of oil can be seen as a possible symptom of the Dutch Disease in U. A. E? s economy.

Assessment for Learning Essay

What is assessment for learning and how does it relate to a teaching assistant? In this essay I am going to compare and contrast the roles of the teacher and the learning support practitioner in assessment of learner’s achievement. I will also explain the difference between formative and summative assessment. I will say what the characteristics of assessment for learning are and explain the importance and benefits of assessment for learning and I will explain how assessment for learning can contribute to planning for future learning when carried out by the teacher and the learners and the teaching assistant. The differences between a teacher and the learning support practitioner are, the teacher is the lead role model in the classroom. The learner’s will take their lead from the teacher. He or she will set the lessons and the goals for learning. He or she is deemed as the role model. The lessons are planned by the teacher and planned in such a way that will help the lea rner’s progress and meet their targets. Once the target shave been met the lessons will move onwards. The teacher will set class assessments to find out where the learners are in terms of meeting their targets, and will continually assess the learner’s abilities be it through classwork, homework or end of term assessments. The learning support practitioner will support the teacher in the classroom. They should take their lead from the teacher. If the teacher wants the learning support practitioner to assess the children they may be asked to take small groups or individual children, and follow an assessment plan set for them. The learning support practitioner should also assist in the classroom and then feedback to the teacher on what he or she feels the learners did well or what they need help with. This will then help the teacher to plan the next lesson and set next steps for the learners. The difference between formative and summative assessments are:- Formative assessment is assessing as the learners learn, for example using open ended questioning to encourage the learners to give their ideas. Observing learners this gives a lot of knowledge as to how the learners work and it is usually done daily. Listening to learners this shows that the learners understand the work, and we can hear their ideas and methods, we can check their understanding by questioning them this shows what the children know and finally self-evaluation let the learners think about what they have learnt and encourage them to evaluate their own progress against their targets and  learning outcomes. Summative assessment is the formal assessments used by teachers to show where the learners are exactly and what has been learnt, for example end of term SAT’s or assessments. The results of these may be put onto the learners report and shared so that their new teachers, head teacher and parents will see how the learners have progressed. The characteristics of assessment for learning are, it informs and promotes all learners achievements. The students are encouraged to take responsibility for their learning. This starts with giving the learners learning outcomes, making sure the learners receive feedback thi s in turn helps them to develop the skills needed to evaluate and self-assess their work. They will be able to recognise their own progress and achievements. This will start with students doing peer assessments, this is where learners will assess in order to gain the skills to assess themselves. The importance and benefits of assessments for learning are that there is a proven link that a learner who is more involved in their own assessment is more motivated to reach their targets. The learners want to reach the goals set and put in the more effort to do so. This is turn boosts self-esteem and motivation in learners. It also gives feedback to the right people, the teacher, the teaching assistant or the learning mentors, on how to best support the learners whether they be more or less able. Assessment for learning enables the learners to understand what they are doing, what they need to do, and how to go about doing it. How assessment for learning can contribute to planning for future learning carried out by:- The teacher, it will help the teacher to be able to plan for th e individual learner. It will help the teacher to pass on responsibility to the learner for their own learning and make sure that the learner is involved with their own learning goals. The learner will be more informed about their own targets and goals. It will help them to reach their full potential by getting them extra support where it might be needed. Learners will be able to self-assess their work which is a life skill, as adults we constantly assess ourselves on the things we do, as the learners gain more awareness it will boost confidence and help them ask for help. The teaching assistant will be better informed this will help to assist the teacher and learners alike. It will help to develop questioning skills and find out where a learner needs support. It may help to plan for less able students so that certain topics can be done again with added support, which  can then be fed back to the teacher. In conclusion assessment for learning is the ongoing assessing of learners, using a variety of meth ods. It helps the teaching assistant in many ways like how best to support learners. It gives teaching assistants the knowledge and capability to do their jobs to a high standard and support the class teacher with more or less abled learners. Burnham and Baker. (2010).Support teaching and learning in schools (primary). (pp104-106).Malaysia. Heinmann The department for children, schools and families. (2008).The assessment for learning strategy. Department for education and skills. (2004/05).Working together: teaching assistants and assessment for learning. Black and William. (1998).Inside the black box. Kings College. London.

Keat’s & Longfellow Analysis

Jasmine Carter Mr. Gillet A. P. Literature September 20, 2012 Keats and Longfellow Both Keats and Longfellow were poets during the Romantic period. The two compose poems in which they reflect on their inability to live up to their creative potential and the idea that death could intervene at any moment. Longfellow is disappointed in his failures and sees comfort in the past rather than an uncertain future. Moreover, Keats fears he won’t accomplish all that he wants, but sees possibility and realizes his grievous goals won’t be important after death.While Longfellow’s tone is fearful, Keats’ is appreciative and hopeful about what life has to offer right now. In both poems, the poets use the literary devices parallelism and symbolism, to depict their particular situation in their own lives, while also using diction with characteristics of romantic poetry, reflecting their time period. The two poets of â€Å"When I Have Fears† and â€Å"Mezzo Camminâ €  tell their fear of not attaining what they want in life through the use of parallelism. Keats uses parallelism by starting his first quatrain, as well as the other two, with the word â€Å"when†, conveying that time is moving forward in his life.The use of this word also delivers the idea Keats’s youthfulness during the time he wrote this poem, and illustrates his fear of not showing others his writing potential before he is â€Å"[ceased to be]†. Longfellow uses parallelism in line 9, telling readers he’s â€Å"halfway up the hill† and that he only â€Å"[sees] the past†. The use of this parallelism depicts his older age and his views on the little time he has left to accomplish something major. Both Keats and Longfellow bring forth their ages to get their readers to realize there is not much time left in life, and they must make a choice to do something worthwhile before it is too late.The second sections of the two poems draw attent ion to the differences in each situation. The two poets use symbolism of something dark; Keats using the symbol of â€Å"the night’s starred face†, while Longfellow uses the symbol of â€Å"a city in the twilight dim and vast†. Both symbols are used to convey that darkness is equivalent to future’s mysteries. The difference in this is that Keats has a positive outlook on the mysteries his future holds, whereas Longfellow finds comfort in his past and fear in his uncertain future.Longfellow’s fears have stopped him from accomplishing greatness all together, in something such as â€Å"[building] some tower of song†. On the other hand, Keats has taken full advantage of the time he’s had and is only slightly frightened that he does not have time to achieve his greatness. Poets in the romantic period felt strongly that literature and nature had the effect to move people. Keats and Longfellow utilize diction characteristics of their romanti c style of poetry. In the couplet of â€Å"Mezzo Cammin†, Longfellow declares he â€Å"[hears an autumnal blast above him]†, referring to the way nature makes him feel.In this case, nature moves him in a negative way; conveying his old age, sickness and, most commonly, the death in which he believes is only getting closer. Although it is not used in Keats’ couplet, he uses the word â€Å"behold† to depict that he sees greatness in his writing and how it would move him, in a positive way, if he accomplished his goal of being a famous poet. In the couplet of â€Å"When I Have Fears†, we see that Keats believe without beholding greatness, he will be moved in a negative way, (i. e. â€Å"nothingness†).In both poems â€Å"When I Have Fears† and â€Å"Mezzo Cammin†, the poets use the poetic devises parallelism, symbolism and diction with hints of romantic style, to reveal the theme that death only comes closer, but what you do in the time you have left is strictly your choice. The two sonnets, written during the Romantic period, bring forth that outlooks on life can be both negative and positive. They convey the idea that no matter what age you are, there is always some feeling of the fear of death in all of us.

Life Mission Statement Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

Life Mission Statement - Essay Example In his life, Jesus preached about the necessity of being poor in the heart in the beatitudes. Matthew (5.3) states that â€Å"happy are the poor in spirit, for there is the Kingdom of God†, a verse that has inspired my mission. Each day I sleep I dream about a society that is humble and one that seeks shelter in Jesus Christ rather than one that clings on the worldly materials. My vision is to see that this dream come true by remaining committed to the life of Jesus Christ. My vision is large and can only be aided by those sent by Jesus. I will work within a non-profit and assist with building the foundation of the organization and developing the plan to serve the community. I will lead youth and seniors in a direction that will render them capable. Through the spirit of the word, I will empower them to become leaders of Christ, to join in the work of the preaching and spreading the gospel. It is with great humbleness that I recognize the God given talent of preaching that I possess. I feel that this is a talent that God gave me purposely, and one that I must cultivate on and use in in the service to the community. I plan to develop this talent by delving in deep understanding of the bible and building a religious tradition within my life style. Having spent a good part of my life in the church, serving God in various capacities, I have learnt the power of preaching and recognized the need to join in this vocation towards the development of a knowledgeable society. I intend to start this mission within my family by developing a family that supports the work of Jesus Christ. I want to create a family that embeds its value on justice, love, care and support for the other in the community. To be an exemplary family, it is important to lead by good actions within the community that I live in. By being kind to others and expressing compassion to other in the society, we shall provide an

Underground space use with urban sustainability Essay

Underground space use with urban sustainability - Essay Example Underground Space Use with Urban Sustainability Moreover, city planners are faced with a huge task of ensuring that services in urban areas are not disrupted; despite the high number of people streaming to urban centers, the quality of life in cities has to remain unchanged. Moreover, today, there is increasing advocacy on sustainable developments especially with regard to built environment. With increasing awareness on the need to preserve the environment, people are demanding stringent sustainability measures in built environment. Therefore, city planners face a daunting task of deciding the best way to come up with city master plans that ensure sustainability. An approach that has remained untapped in the development of many cities; the approach  promises great opportunities for expansion of cities within sustainable limits is underground urban infrastructure development. Bobylev (2009, 1129) observed that, in order for investors to develop private housing, they require enough transport infrastructure and enough energy supply , which depends on the transport available in such cities. This calls for the need to have proper integration of urban infrastructure development and sustainable development in cities. Therefore, to ensure sustainability despite the growing of urban cities, underground urban development promises potential opportunities, if proper city master plans are prepared to highlight proper urban underground infrastructure designs. Chow et al (2) noted that the ability to maximize space in towns and urban cities would be the greatest challenge for engineers and architectures in the near future. One of the benefits of urban underground infrastructure is that it offers city planners opportunities and space to relocate infrastructure projects such as railway lines, roads, recreational facilities, stores, sports facilities among other amenities. The need for mass transportation services and modern infrastructural development requires new and innovative ways to use the available dwindling space in cities (Chow et al, 3). As a result, efficient use of underground space will ensure planners, developers, landowners and other parties have exciting and untapped opportunities to expand construction projects. Many cities have managed to save huge spaces by designing efficient underground master plans for their transport systems, which has helped not only in reducing congestion but also in maximizing utilization of space in cities. One of the best examples of the huge impacts of underground urban master plan is the London underground station, an underground facility that has managed not only to reduce traffic in the city but also has reshaped the city and utility of space to the best extent possible. The design and the emergence of the London underground station challenged the limits of engineering and city master planning across the globe. The station is an excellent benchmark of what would become of many cities in the future. Space is rapidly becoming scarce while demand for sustainability and the demand for transportation services have increased. Therefore, the London station is an excellent case of typical modernism (Wright, 2011). The tube as it is commonly known made it possible for people to travel between several stations within London at record speeds. As a result, people were no longer willing to live in the city but opted to live away from the city where they can spend a few minutes to get to London (Wright, 2011). T

Entrepreneur Report Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Entrepreneur Report - Essay Example Based on self-evaluation, it is quite evident that the development in some of my personal traits would prove to be effective on obtaining the desired objectives. In this regard, a few of the major life roles that I have garnered throughout different stages of life can be duly considered as a set of major attributes, which can encourage me of being as a successful entrepreneur. Such roles include the following: In the context of being as a manager, I must ensure to have the capability of planning, organizing and controlling skills for attaining both short and long-term organizational goals. Correspondingly, I should also focus on effectively practicing different job positions in order to be a competent achiever in the entrepreneurial roles. Additionally, I also have strong self-believed in terms of evaluating my own strengths and weaknesses, which can also help me to play the role of an entrepreneur efficiently. In this context, I am also determined to continuously dealing with my weaknesses and strengthening self-believe especially in terms of managing, controlling and decision making activities. In the context of the role as a risk taker, I should highly focus on strengthening my abilities to deal with different complexities and uncertainties that are essentially required to become a successful entrepreneur. In relation to play the role as a creator, I would like to develop exceptional way of improving business performance and handling risks with the best and possible ways. Beyond the above mentioned entrepreneurial objectives, I would also pay utmost attention on increasing my knowledge and abilities to understand or grasp the opportunities by evaluating the prevailing different market scenarios. Nevertheless, improving perceptual skills and maintaining adequate flexibility to learn new ideas would also be certain other major areas to be taken into concern within my entrepreneurial objectives. In relation to define the critical success